Best Production Design
"Test Pattern" (Kino Lorber) – Shatara Michelle Ford, director; Shatara Michelle Ford, Pin-Chun Liu, Yu-Hao Su, producers
For this new category, we're taking a stab in the dark by predicting that voters may want to award the veteran Steve James and his project "City So Real," a stirring portrait of Chicago during its recent mayoral election. But maybe they'll want to select something more unconventional, and John Wilson's "How To with John Wilson" definitely fits that bill.
Alternate: Ruth Negga
"Squid Game" (Netflix) – Kim Ji-yeon, Hwang Dong-hyu, executive producers
Michael Greyeyes, "Wild Indian" (Vertical Entertainment)
Best Film Editing
"Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)" (Searchlight Pictures) – Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, director; Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein, producers
Best International Feature
Emilia Jones, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)
Alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal
"What Do We See When We Look at the Sky?" (MUBI) – Alexandre Koberidze, director; Mariam Shatberashvili, producers
I don't think we have that outcome in our midst this year with "The Lost Daughter" looking very competitive in adapted screenplay, along with its Netflix counterpart "Passing." Original screenplay is a lot more difficult to crack this season, which is why films like "The Card Counter" and "Red Rocket" may face an uphill battle. Two others have found their way to a nomination, "First Reformed" (2018) and "Marriage Story" (2019). The Gothams introduced this category in 2015. Of the six winners, three have won a screenplay Oscar (in either original or adapted) – "Spotlight" (2015), "Moonlight" (2016) and "Get Out" (2017). With this being Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch's first noms after being passed over for "Tangerine" and "The Florida Project," they could be an upset pick. Only last year's tied winners, "The Forty-Year-Old Version" and "Fourteen," failed to garner enough Academy votes.
Rebecca Hall, "Passing" (Netflix)
Joaquin Phoenix, "C'mon C'mon" (A24)
Best Documentary Feature
"The Green Knight" (A24) – David Lowery, director; Toby Halbrooks, James M. Johnston, David Lowery, Tim Headington, Theresa Steele Page, producers
Michael Greyeyes, "Rutherford Falls" (Peacock)
Taylour Paige, "Zola" (A24)
Alternate: Emilia Jones
"Small Axe" (Amazon Prime Video) – Steve McQueen, creator; Tracey Scoffield, David Tanner, Steve McQueen, executive producers
On the film side, two Netflix features lead the tally, both from debut women filmmakers — Rebecca Hall's "Passing" and Maggie Gyllenhaal's "The Lost Daughter." There isn't always an obvious blueprint to predicting this group. After Monday's first critics and guild screening of Steven Spielberg's "West Side Story" and Wednesday's unveiling of Guillermo del Toro's "Nightmare Alley," Thursday brings us the National Board of Review selections before the New York Film Critics Circle weighs in on Friday. As we saw with last year's two tied categories (please, God, no more ties), things could get interesting at Cipriani Wall Street. The Gotham are just the start of a busy week that has a great influence on the Oscar race.
"Faya Dayi" (Janus Films) – Jessica Beshir, director and producer
Gaby Hoffmann, "C'mon C'mon" (A24)
Prediction: Tessa Thompson
Hopefully, it'll lead to some very deserved Academy attention in best actress. She's also a former winner for breakthrough performer for "Dear White People" (2014). With its first year going gender-neutral and expanding to ten nominees, it really is anyone's game, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Tessa Thompson's beautiful performance in Hall's debut period drama could be a triumphant moment for many to stand up and cheer. This assortment of journalists and voters tend to go with their hearts in this category, unafraid to go with the "purity" choice. Colman, Isaac and Rex are also strong possibilities. The Gothams have been known to set the tone of a coronation year, as with Julianne Moore ("Still Alice") but we don't seem to be in that type of season (for the moment). For example, Toni Collette ("Hereditary") over Glenn Close ("The Wife"), Isabelle Huppert ("Elle") over Natalie Portman ("Jackie") and Bel Powley ("The Diary of a Teenage Girl") over Cate Blanchett ("Carol") or Brie Larson ("Room").
"Philly D.A." (PBS) – Ted Passon, Yoni Brook, Nicole Salazar, creators; Dawn Porter, Sally Jo Fifer, Lois Vossen, Ryan Chanatry, Gena Konstantinakos, Jeff Seelbach, Patty Quillin, executive producers
Lili Taylor, "Paper Spiders" (Entertainment Squad)
Prediction: "The Lost Daughter"
Best Costume Design
"Pride" (FX) – Christine Vachon, Sydney Foos, Danny Gabai, Kama Kaina, Stacy Scripter, Alex Stapleton
Suzanna Son, "Red Rocket" (A24)
"President" (Greenwich Entertainment) – Camilla Nielsson, director; Signe Byrge Sørensen, Joslyn Barnes, producers
Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
"The Souvenir Part II" (A24) – Joanna Hogg, director; Ed Guiney, Emma Norton, Andrew Low, Joanna Hogg, Luke Schiller, producers
Troy Kotsur, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)
Otherwise, Barry Jenkins' profound "The Underground Railroad" could pull it off, but the addictive "The White Lotus" might be undeniable. This seems to be "Squid Game's" big moment, and the timing feels right for a breakthrough. Robot." "Squid Game" feels like the next step in that evolution. The Gothams have been all about recognizing breakthrough storytelling in this category, including "Watchmen," "When They See Us," "Killing Eve," "Atlanta," "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend" and "Mr.
"Run the World" (Starz) – Leigh Davenport, creator; Yvette Lee Bowser, Leigh Davenport, Nastaran Dibai, executive producers
The group has a solid track record of their top pick moving onto Oscar's attention with past winners like "Birdman" (2014), "Spotlight" (2015), "Moonlight" (2016) and "Nomadland" (2020). We don't know if any of these will end up in this year's final ten, but at the moment, Gyllenhaal's directorial debut with Olivia Colman, Dakota Johnson and Jessie Buckley seem like the most likely of the field. Netflix pulled off a victory here in 2019 with Noah Baumbach's "Marriage Story" (2019) winning over "The Farewell" and "Uncut Gems," demonstrating its sway with this group.
Prediction: "The Lost Daughter"
Best Original Screenplay
"Red Rocket" – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch (A24)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Simon Rex, "Red Rocket" (A24)
"The Green Knight" – David Lowery (A24)
And as a backup, perhaps they couldn't resist being the very first awards show to recognize the brilliance of Jennifer Coolidge in "The White Lotus." This is a brand-new category for the Gothams, so there's no hint to how voters might lean. Perhaps they'll stick with the always deserving superstar on this list, Emmy winner Jean Smart. Or maybe Ethan Hawke will finally get the attention he deserves for his incredible work on "The Good Lord Bird." But we're going to stick with the possibility that voters may have gotten swept up in "Squid Game" mania and selected Lee Jung-jae.
"The Card Counter" – Paul Schrader (Focus Features)
Colman Domingo, "Zola" (A24)
"The Underground Railroad" (Amazon Prime Video) – Barry Jenkins, Colson Whitehead, creators; Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski, Mark Ceryak, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Colson Whitehead, Jacqueline Hoyt, executive producers
Jordan ("Fruitvale Station"), Anya Taylor-Joy ("The Witch") and Timothée Chalamet ("Call Me by Your Name") have shown them to correctly predict who is someone to keep an eye on in Hollywood. Will voters take into account that Natalie Morales also directed another film, "Plan B," further adding to her successful year? Wonderful selections like Michael B. This is another category that history has shown the Gothams to "get it right" most of the time. Emilia Jones is already shooting her next project for Netflix and Suzanna Son's musical talent should be celebrated for the next few years. This line-up is daunting. Or are they smitten by Rachel Sennott's comedic timing in "Shiva Baby?" Shot in the dark, Son edges out Jones.
Prediction: Troy Kotsur
"Titane" (Neon) – Julia Ducournau, director; Jean-Christophe Reymond, producer
With the category only in its second year, last year's winner "Identifying Features" over "Bacurau" and "Beanpole" was a bit of a headscratcher considering how much the latter two were beloved. 10, then this would be it. If there's a group that's going to go to bat for the feature, just ahead of shortlisting voting that begins on Dec. However, the coming-of-age comedy from Joachim Trier has gained considerable traction on the circuit and could be the easiest and most accessible international film for all awards groups. None of the nominees translated to Oscar but this year, there are three heavy-hitters in the mix — Japan's "Drive My Car," France's "Titane" and Norway's "The Worst Person in the World." There are vocal admirers for Ryusuke Hamaguchi's Japanese three-hour entry that won three prizes at the Cannes Film Festival.
After the Gothams switched their TV categories in 2019 to focus on more commercially available series, the two winners in this category both centered on unique female characters at a crossroads, including "Pen15" (2019) and "I May Destroy You" (2020). However, if voters want to be the first to recognize the ground breaking "Reservation Dogs," that could be the winner. The success of "Hacks" may give it the upper hand here, but "We Are Lady Parts" could surprise as well.
Anya Taylor-Joy, "The Queen’s Gambit" (Netflix)
"Azor" (MUBI) – Andreas Fontana, director; Eugenia Mumenthaler, David Epiney, producers
Amalia Ulman, "El Planeta" (Utopia)
"Blindspotting" (Starz) – Rafael Casal, Daveed Diggs, creators; Rafael Casal, Daveed Diggs, Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Ken Lee, Tim Palen, Emily Gerson Saines, Seith Mann, executive producers
Alternate: Olivia Colman
"It's A Sin" (HBO Max) – Russell T Davies, creator; Russell T Davies, Peter Hoar, Nicola Shindler, executive producers
Natalie Morales, "Language Lessons" (Shout! Studios)
"El Planeta" – Amalia Ulman (Utopia Distribution)
"Ascension" (MTV Documentary Films) – Jessica Kingdon, director; Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell, Jessica Kingdon, producers
Ruth Negga, "Passing" (Netflix)
Breakthrough Nonfiction Series
Jennifer Coolidge, "The White Lotus" (HBO)
Prediction: Suzanna Son
Ethan Hawke, "The Good Lord Bird" (Showtime)
"Passing" – Rebecca Hall (Netflix)
"The Worst Person in the World" (Neon) – Joachim Trier, director; Thomas Robsham, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Dyveke Bjørkly Graver, producers
Devery Jacobs, "Reservation Dogs" (FX)
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Passing" (Netflix) – Rebecca Hall, director; Nina Yang Bongiovi, Forest Whitaker, Margot Hand, Rebecca Hall, producers
Breakthrough Series – Short Format (under 40 minutes)
Prediction: Lee Jung-jae, "Squid Game"
"Pig" (Neon) – Michael Sarnoski, director; Nicolas Cage, Steve Tisch, David Carrico, Adam Paulsen, Dori Roth, Joseph Restiano, Dimitra Tsingou, Thomas Benski, Ben Giladi, Vanessa Block, producers
Check out the winner predictions down below.
Hall, "Test Pattern" (Kino Lorber) Brittany S.
Thuso Mbedu, "The Underground Railroad" (Prime Video)
Best Animated Feature
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "The Lost Daughter" (Netflix)
Other programs with multiple noms include three in the short form race: “Hacks,” “Reservation Dogs” and “We Are Lady Parts.” The show has nominations in breakthrough longform series and performance in a new series for Jennifer Coolidge. “The White Lotus,” which aired this summer, will get its feet wet ahead of the 2022 awards season. For “Squid Game,” Netflix is aiming to make history this winter awards season, as the South Korean thriller could potentially be the first non-English language series to break into the kudos game. The show is up for breakthrough longform series and performance in a new series, for Le Jung-jae. Looking for an awards redemption after being mostly snubbed at the Emmys is Showtime’s stellar “The Good Lord Bird,” nominated in longform and performance in a new series (Ethan Hawke), and Amazon Prime Video’s “The Underground Railroad” (longform and Thuso Mbedu). As for the television side, the Gothams will offer up a first glimpse at how potent new contenders, including Netflix’s “Squid Game” and HBO’s “The White Lotus,” might be in future awards competitions.
"We Are Lady Parts" (Peacock) – Nida Manzoor, creator, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Surian Fletcher-Jones, Mark Freeland, executive producers
Breakthrough Series – Long Format (over 40 minutes)
Emma Seligman, "Shiva Baby" (Utopia Distribution)
Selecting Gyllenhaal's entry could be far too easy to check off, which makes me lean towards Ford, whose "Test Pattern" is nominated for best feature. This will be my Hail Mary pass in the prediction game. This trophy can go to any of the five nominees. More times than not, the Gothams don't make the "obvious" choices such as their last two winners, Andrew Patterson ("The Vast of Night") over Radha Blank ("The Forty-Year-Old Version") and Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre ("The Mustang") over Olivia Wilde ("Booksmart").
The Gotham Awards will be the first awards body on the independent circuit to choose its winners for the year on Monday.
Shatara Michelle Ford, "Test Pattern" (Kino Lorber)
Alternate: "The White Lotus"
Alternate: "Reservation Dogs"
Frankie Faison, "The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain" (Gravitas Ventures)
Best International Feature” />
"Reservation Dogs" (FX) – Sterlin Harjo, Taika Waititi, creators; Taika Waititi, Sterlin Harjo, Garrett Basch, executive producers
"How To with John Wilson" (HBO) – John Wilson, creator; Nathan Fielder, John Wilson, Michael Koman, Clark Reinking, executive producers
Outstanding Performance in a New Series
Best Original Score
"Hacks" (HBO Max) Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Lucia Aniello, Michael Schur, David Miner, Morgan Sackett, executive producers Downs, Jen Statsky, creators; Jen Statsky, Paul W.
Anjana Vasan, "We Are Lady Parts" (Peacock)
"The Lost Daughter" – Maggie Gyllenhaal (Netflix)
"Drive My Car" (Janus Films/Sideshow) – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, director; Teruhisa Yamamoto, producer
"Flee" (Neon) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, director; Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie, producers
Oscar Isaac, "The Card Counter" (Focus Features)
"City So Real" (National Geographic) – Jeff Skoll, Diane Weyermann, Alex Kotlowitz, Gordon Quinn, Betsy Steinberg, Jolene Pinder, executive producers
Assessing the buzz of the actors over the past few weeks, I've boiled this down to either Kotsur's infectiously lovable deaf father and husband from "CODA," Domingo's criminally underappreciated pimp in "Zola" and Negga's thoughtfully assembled white-passing socialite in "Passing." Mindful of being inclusive, how wonderful would it be to see Kotsur walk on stage, perhaps starting a precursor lovefest ahead of National Board of Review and New York Film Critics, which could see him emulate last year's critical darling, Paul Raci ("Sound of Metal")? With three "Mass" actors out of the fold here, it's hard to see Birney pulling off an upset in this field of nominees.
Best Documentary Feature
Tessa Thompson, "Passing" (Netflix)
"The Lost Daughter" (Netflix) – Maggie Gyllenhaal, director; Osnat Handelsman Keren, Talia Kleinhendler, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Charles Dorfman, producers
Outstanding Supporting Performance
"The White Lotus" (HBO) – Mike White, creator; Mike White, David Bernad, Nick Hall, executive producers
Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter" (Netflix)
Prediction: "City So Real"
Alternate: "The Worst Person in the World"
"The Good Lord Bird" (Showtime) – Ethan Hawke, Mark Richard, creators; James McBride, Brian Taylor, Ryan Hawke, Ethan Hawke, Jason Blum, Albert Hughes, Mark Richard, Marshall Persinger, David Schiff, executive producers
2022 Academy Awards Predictions
Prediction: "Squid Game"
Outstanding Lead Performance
Prediction: "Drive My Car"
Alternate: "How To with John Wilson"
Alternate: Jennifer Coolidge, "The White Lotus"
Jean Smart, "Hacks" (HBO Max)
Rachel Sennott, "Shiva Baby" (Utopia)
Edson Oda, "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Marlee Matlin, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)
Reed Birney, "Mass" (Bleecker Street)
Best Supporting Actor
Omar Sy, "Lupin" (Netflix)
Alternate: "Red Rocket"
"Exterminate All the Brutes" (HBO) – Raoul Peck, Rémi Grellety, executive producers
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Shatara Michelle Ford
Lee Jung-jae, "Squid Game" (Netflix)
Alternate: "Summer of Soul"
Let's hope they don't go with another tie like last year's between "A Thousand Cuts" and the Oscar-nominated "Time." That also includes upset choices like "Hale County This Morning, This Evening" (2018) over what would become the shockingly snubbed Mr. There's no rhyme or reason why one film does well with this group over another but looking through the history of this category, you have to go back to "Better This World" (2011) for a Gotham choice that did not translate to at minimum, an Oscar nomination. Rogers doc, "Won't You Be My Neighbor?" This looks like a clear race between Neon's animated-international doc "Flee," and Searchlight's peek into a 1969 Harlem Music festival with "Summer of Soul." Looking at how they tend to veer away from more populist choices (i.e., "Life Itself" and "Apollo 11"), "Flee" may just edge it out completely.
Best Original Song
Jessie Buckley, "The Lost Daughter" (Netflix)
Best Supporting Actress